Welcome to EFSA's Bird Flu Radar. Based on the data on distributions and movements shown in the Migration Mapping Tool, combined with data on Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks available from the EU's Animal Disease Information System (ADIS), supplemented with data from EMPRES-i for the United Kingdom, we have now developed an Early Warning System for HPAI outbreaks in wild birds. This is a prototype tool which is under constant development and will be further expanded in the future. Currently we provide results from 17 April 2023 onwards.
View our introductory YouTube video on EFSA's Bird Flu Radar.
The Bird Flu Radar (GUI) has been developed for EFSA as part of the project named 'Implementation of an Early Warning System for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza' (NP/EFSA/BIOHAW/2022/01). The purpose of this project was to develop a spatiotemporal risk assessment model to estimate the probability of HPAI outbreaks in wild bird populations by spatiotemporal unit across Europe. The spatiotemporal risk assessment model is now updated in real time with new results being displayed every Monday morning based on the latest HPAI outbreaks (H5 and H7) reported in wild birds in Europe.
- August 2024 - Update of the risk assessment model based on new versions of the models related to wild bird abundance and movements including additional species
- August 2024 - Expansion of the risk assessment model to allow the prediction of the risk of introduction and establishment of HPAI in poultry
- August 2025 - Update and improvement of the risk assessment model based on a new integrated version of the models related to wild bird abundance and movements
- December 2025 - Final model validation
Spatiotemporal risk assessment model description
Model update January 2022 - the probability of HPAI introduction in grid cell i at time t now takes better account of what happened in that same grid cell at times t-1, t-2 and t-3. The new optimal cutoff value is PIntro = 0.04 and leads to a sensitivity and specificity of 81%.
Model update August 2023 - The EU Animal Disease Information System (ADIS) is now used as a source for information on HPAI outbreaks for all countries but the United Kingdom (UK)
Visit EFSA's Bird Flu Radar
Acknowledgements and copyright
Disclaimer: EFSA’s Bird Flu Radar was produced and adopted by Sovon, ICO, BTO, EuroBirdPortal and Ausvet Europe in the context of a contract with the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), awarded following a public procurement procedure. It aims at informing stakeholders on the probability of highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks occurring in the EU, based on the output of spatiotemporal risk models. The information reflects the state of knowledge available on the date of dispatch. EFSA cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies or inconsistencies with regard to text and/or data contained therein. Therefore, EFSA accepts no responsibility or liability arising out of, or in connection with the information provided. The present document is not to be considered an output adopted by EFSA.