EFSA's Bird Flu Radar

Welcome to EFSA's Bird Flu Radar. Based on the data on distributions and movements shown in the Migration Mapping Tool, combined with data on Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks available from the EU's Animal Disease Information System (ADIS), supplemented with data from EMPRES-i for the United Kingdom, we have now developed an Early Warning System for HPAI outbreaks in wild birds. This is a prototype tool which is under constant development and will be further expanded in the future. Currently we provide results from 17 April 2023 onwards.

These tools have been produced through a collaboration between EURING, EuroBirdPortal and Ausvet that is funded by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA).


View our introductory YouTube video on EFSA's Bird Flu Radar.



The Bird Flu Radar (GUI) has been developed for EFSA as part of the project named 'Implementation of an Early Warning System for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza' (NP/EFSA/BIOHAW/2022/01). The purpose of this project was to develop a spatiotemporal risk assessment model to estimate the probability of HPAI outbreaks in wild bird populations by spatiotemporal unit across Europe. The spatiotemporal risk assessment model is now updated in real time with new results being displayed every Monday morning based on the latest HPAI outbreaks (H5 and H7) reported in wild birds in Europe.

Please note that the model and this GUI will be updated and improved during the course of the project. In particular the key next steps are:
  1. August 2024 - Update of the risk assessment model based on new versions of the models related to wild bird abundance and movements including additional species
  2. August 2024 - Expansion of the risk assessment model to allow the prediction of the risk of introduction and establishment of HPAI in poultry
  3. August 2025 - Update and improvement of the risk assessment model based on a new integrated version of the models related to wild bird abundance and movements
  4. December 2025 - Final model validation

Important notes: Delay in outbreak reporting has a major impact on the quality of the model prediction. To take into account the outbreaks occurring several weeks ago but only reported within the last week, the model is re-run every week for the last 16 weeks. In practice, this means that model outputs are updated every week not only for the week to come but also for the last 16 weeks. In addition, at this stage, Cyprus and Türkiye are not included in the model calculations because of lack of some input data used in the model.



Spatiotemporal risk assessment model description

In this model, the probability of an HPAI outbreak (PIntro) is defined as the probability that HPAI virus enters a given area via wild bird movements (probability of entry) and is able to be transmitted to at least one other wild bird in the area under consideration (probability of establishment).

The risk factors considered in the model include:

  1. Wild bird order and species
  2. Number of migratory birds
  3. Migration patterns
  4. Notification of Avian Influenza outbreaks at origin

The 12 wild bird species included in the model are: Common teal (Anas crecca), Eurasian wigeon (Mareca penelope), Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), Greater White-fronted Goose (Anser albifons), Greylag Goose (Anser anser), Pink-footed Goose (Anser brachyrhynchus), Bean Goose (Anser fabalis), Common Pochard (Aythya ferina), Tufted Duck (Aythya fuligula), Canada Goose (Branta canadensis), Whooper Swan (Cygnus cygnus), Mute Swan (Cygnus olor). These 12 wild bird species account for 89% of European ring recovery data for waterfowl.

The spatial scale of the final model was defined based on EEA 50x50km grid cells. The temporal scale of the final model was defined as a week of a year using as reference the weeks used by EuroBirdPortal.

The model sensitivity and specificity were assessed by comparing the value of the probability of an HPAI outbreak in a given spatiotemporal unit with the actual HPAI outbreaks reported in ADIS.

A full description of the model is available in the EFSA External Scientific Report published in 2022 (see reference below), but changes made to the model compared to this initial model description are briefly summarized below.

Model update January 2022 - the probability of HPAI introduction in grid cell i at time t now takes better account of what happened in that same grid cell at times t-1, t-2 and t-3. The new optimal cutoff value is PIntro = 0.04 and leads to a sensitivity and specificity of 81%.

Model update August 2023 - The EU Animal Disease Information System (ADIS) is now used as a source for information on HPAI outbreaks for all countries but the United Kingdom (UK)

Input data

Four main sources of data have been used as input for the model:

  1. Expected abundance of the 12 wild bird species accross Europe (output of the ICO's model)
  2. Long-distance movements of migratory populations accross Europe (output of the BTO's model)
  3. Short-distance movements of migratory populations accross Europe (output of the BTO's model)
  4. Reported outbreaks of HPAI (H5 and H7) in wild bird populations (ADIS for all countries but UK, while UK HPAI outbreaks are extracted from EMPRES-i)



Visit EFSA's Bird Flu Radar

EFSA's Bird Flu Radar is available here.



Acknowledgements and copyright

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Disclaimer: EFSA’s Bird Flu Radar was produced and adopted by Sovon, ICO, BTO, EuroBirdPortal and Ausvet Europe in the context of a contract with the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), awarded following a public procurement procedure. It aims at informing stakeholders on the probability of highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks occurring in the EU, based on the output of spatiotemporal risk models. The information reflects the state of knowledge available on the date of dispatch. EFSA cannot be held liable for any errors, inaccuracies or inconsistencies with regard to text and/or data contained therein. Therefore, EFSA accepts no responsibility or liability arising out of, or in connection with the information provided. The present document is not to be considered an output adopted by EFSA.

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